War Outcomes Aren’t About Size—They’re About Incentives And Strategy

Recorded on January 21, 2026. In this interview, Steve Yang sits down with political scientist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, known for applying game theory and incentive-driven analysis to real-world politics, conflict, and regime survival. If you’ve ever wondered why leaders make “irrational” decisions that still work politically, this conversation lays out the mechanics behind it—who leaders must keep happy, how coalitions stay loyal, and why credibility in foreign policy is so hard to maintain. We cover why leaders prioritize staying in power above all else, how democracies and autocracies differ in incentives, why smaller actors sometimes beat stronger ones in…